Back in the day, typing something into Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) felt like flipping on a light in a dark room. You’d ask, and the web would respond. Fast-forward to now, and for the first time in decades, that search box isn’t the only game in town. AI tools like ChatGPT are quietly changing how we look for information, and that shift could hit Google where it hurts most: its ad revenue.
Google Is Still Huge, But It’s Not Alone Anymore
Google handles about 14 billion searches every day. That’s around 93% of the global search market. The business model is quite Simple: serve you a list of results, with sponsored ads on top. It’s a machine generating $50.7 billion in revenue from search ads in Q1 2025 alone.
Now compare that to ChatGPT. OpenAI’s chatbot processes roughly 37.5 million queries a day, which is a fraction of Google’s volume, sure. However, the number is growing fast. Between December and February, ChatGPT’s user base jumped from 300 million to 400 million weekly users, and OpenAI is gunning for a billion by year-end.
The chart below from Main Street Data (MSD) highlights Google Search’s central role in driving Alphabet’s overall revenue.
This Isn’t a Gimmick, It’s a Real Shift
What’s driving the change? ChatGPT gives you straight answers — no blue links, no clutter. You ask, “Should I buy Alphabet stock if chatbot search keeps rising?” and get a full, sourced explanation. It’s like skipping the middleman.
Of course, it’s not perfect yet as hallucinations still happen, and not every response is airtight, but for millions of users, the convenience is winning out.
That’s a problem for Google. Its entire search business depends on clicks. The more you click on links (especially sponsored ones), the more advertisers pay. But if people start getting answers without clicking anywhere? That ad model starts to look a little shaky.
The Numbers Are Relatively Small, But the Trajectory Isn’t
ChatGPT currently holds between 0.25% and 2.1% (depending on source) of the global “search-like” traffic, up 740% from last year. It’s small, but it’s moving, and moving fast. If this trend continues, even a 5–10% dip in search traffic could mean billions in lost ad revenue for Google.
And don’t forget that younger users — the future of search — are the most comfortable with chat-based tools. That’s not a coincidence.
Google Isn’t Sleeping Through This
To be fair, Google’s not ignoring the shift. It launched Gemini, its own AI chatbot, and started rolling out “AI Overviews” that answer questions right in search results. In theory, this keeps users in the Google ecosystem while delivering the instant answers they’re getting used to.
However, one problem arises, though: These AI summaries don’t leave much room for ads. If users don’t scroll, click, or see sponsored links, how does Google keep the money flowing?
That’s the core tension. Google has to evolve without breaking the machine that made it rich.
What It Means for Investors
Right now, Alphabet stock is holding steady, and the ad business is still strong. But under the surface, the foundation is shifting. AI chatbots are redefining how users interact with the web, and companies that depend on old behaviors might be caught flat-footed.
This doesn’t mean Google’s in immediate danger, but it does mean the pressure to adapt has never been higher. The question is no longer whether people will search differently; it’s how fast they’ll shift and whether Google can pivot fast enough to meet them there.
What Is the Price Target for GOOG Stock?
Currently, Wall Street firmly believes in Alphabet’s long-term prospects, with the stock sporting a Strong Buy rating. The average price target for GOOG stock is $202.57. This implies a 22.62% upside potential.
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