Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle would be the first modern-era pope from Asia.
Betting markets around the world suggest two cardinals, Pietro Parolin or Luis Antonio Tagle, have best chances of becoming the next pope. A betting expert, though, questions how much we can read into those wagers.
On Wednesday, 133 cardinals will convene for a papal conclave at the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel and begin the process of selecting a successor to Pope Francis, who died April 21.
Within hours of Francis’ death, sites such as Polymarket, a cypto trading platform, and Kalshi, a futures platform, saw Parolin, a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives, rise above the rest of the potential candidates. He remains the favorite in most betting markets.
Who are the favorites to be the next pope
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But don’t expect the various conclave betting markets to rival the accuracy of those predicting events like elections, says Harry Crane, a Rutgers University statistics professor, who studies election outcomes and the predictions made by betting markets.
“It’s not a trivially small market, but it’s quite small by comparison,” Crane said. While the U.S. presidential election drew billions of dollars in bets just a few million are at stake on bets about a new pope. He said three groups of bettors help drive betting markets.
What drives betting markets to bigger stakes
Presidential elections are steeped in all three elements, above, which then drives bigger bets from each of three groups. In turn, bigger markets tend to lead to better predictions.
“There’s quite a bit of information in terms of data,” Crane said about presidential elections. “There’s quite a bit of risk because any company worldwide is exposed to who becomes president and what decisions they may make. We’re seeing that now in real time with tariffs. And recreationally, people are just interested in it.”
So while there is growing interest worldwide in who will become the next pope, there’s little to lure in professional bettors – except for the small amounts wagered by recreational bettors.
Still, there are a few parallels that can be drawn to the 2024 presidential election odds when Democrats were pressuring Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in July following his struggles in the debate with Donald Trump.
“We saw those odds change pretty drastically based on very little information about what Nancy Pelosi may or may not have said,” Crane said. “In a way, they’re very similar because that was done behind closed doors, and the (conclave) is done behind closed doors.”
Where the odds stand for the next pope on different betting markets
Crane says he doubts these markets will be as precise as bigger markets focused around elections, sports or business, but, perhaps, these markets have at least landed on the most likely candidates.
“Does it have more predictability than if you just picked one out of 130 cardinals, and you gave them all the same chance of winning? I would say ‘yeah probably.’
“If you have specific information about five of the cardinals, or maybe one or two specific ones, you could get quite a bit of information about what’s going to happen,” Crane said. “There’s only 130 of them.”
Who could become the next pope?
Details about the top candidates to become Francis’ successor:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Position: Vatican diplomat
Nationality: Italian
Age: 70
What else? Parolin is seen as a compromise candidate between progressives and conservatives. He has been a church diplomat for most of his life and was Francis’ secretary of state (often called the “deputy pope”) since 2013, the year Francis was elected.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle
Position: Former archbishop of Manila
Nationality: Filipino
Age: 67
What else? Tagle is often called the “Asian Francis” because of his similar commitment to social justice. If elected he would be the first modern-era pontiff from Asia.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson
Position: Vatican official; president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace
Nationality: Ghanaian
Age: 76
What else? Turkson’s background includes tending to congregations in Ghana in addition to leading several Vatican offices. He comes from one of the most dynamic regions of the church, which is struggling against secularism in its European heartlands. He would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
Matteo Maria Zuppi
Position: Archbishop of Bologna
Nationality: Italian
Age: 69
What else? Zuppi is called “the Italian Bergoglio” because of his affinity with Francis. Zuppi is known as a “street priest” who focuses on migrants and the poor and cares little about pomp and protocol. He would be the first Italian pope since 1978.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Position: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
Nationality: Italian
Age: 59
What else? Pizzaballa has served in Jerusalem and has advocated for peace in the Middle East. He has criticized the Hamas invasion of Israel and Israeli attacks on civilians in Gaza. His relative youth may hurt his chance of being selected.
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Position: Former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe
Nationality: Hungarian
Age: 72
What else? Erdo is seen as another compromise candidate. He ranks as a conservative in theology but is also considered pragmatic. He never clashed openly with Francis, unlike other tradition-minded clerics.
